How deep will the pain cut?Major institutions are forecasting unemployment rates last seen during the Great Depression. Here are a few projections:
- Goldman Sachs – 15%
- Merrill Lynch – 10.6%
- JP Morgan – 8.5%
- Wells Fargo – 7.3%
How long will the pain last?As horrific as those numbers are, there is some good news. The pain will be deep, but it won’t last as long as it did after previous crises. Taking the direst projection from Goldman Sachs, we can see that 15% unemployment quickly drops to 6-8% as we head into next year, continues to drop, and then returns to about 4% in 2023. When we compare that to the length of time it took to get back to work during both the Great Recession (9 years long) and the Great Depression (12 years long), we can see how the current timetable is much more favorable.
Bottom LineIt’s devastating to think about how the financial heartache families are going through right now is adding to the uncertainty surrounding their health as well. Hopefully, we will soon have the virus contained and then we will, slowly and safely, return to work.
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